Reflecting on Predictions

Prior to yesterday’s election, I made 20 predictions. I was certain that I would be right on most of them. Of course, I don’t think anybody really predicted what actually happened. Here is a reflection on those predictions.

1) Like Alberta’s 2012 provincial election, the pollsters are heavily overrating the challenger, and underrating the incumbent. The Conservatives will get the most seats and the largest percentage of the vote.

No explanation needed. I was wrong. The Conservatives finished in a very distant second, with 32% of the vote. The victorious Liberals ended up with 39%. (Score: 0/1)

2) The two 2013 Edmonton mayoral candidates running in this election will experience opposite fates. Kerry Diotte will be elected in Edmonton-Griesbach, while Karen Leibovici will fall short of Conservative candidate Kelly McCauley’s totals in Edmonton-West.

I got some redemption on this one. Kerry Diotte won his seat in Edmonton-Griesbach with a nearly 3,000 vote margin over the NDP’s Janis Irwin. Karen Leibovici finished nearly 8,000 votes back of Conservative Kelly McCauley in Edmonton-West. (Score: 1/2)

3) The Conservatives will sweep the Northern Territories. Polls have shown the Liberals ahead in all three, but they won’t win any of them.

The Conservatives weren’t even close to winning a single one of these seats. The Liberals won all three. Nothing to see here. Move along. (Score: 1/3)

4) The NDP will win no more than 3 seats on the prairies. They will barely win Edmonton-Strathcona despite having an incumbent in that riding.

The NDP won 6 seats on the prairies. 1 in Alberta, 3 in Saskatchewan and 2 in Manitoba. Linda Duncan was re-elected in Edmonton-Strathcona with a margin of just over 7,000 votes more than Conservative Len Thom. (Score: 1/4)

5) Niki Ashton will lose her seat in Churchill. Her father’s provincial scandals stand in the way of her re-election.

Niki Ashton was re-elected. How unfortunate. (Score: 1/5)

6) The NDP will win less than half of the seats in Quebec, and may end up with less than each of the other two major parties in that province.

The NDP won 16 seats in Quebec. The Conservatives won 12. I was half correct on this one, as the NDP won much less than half of the seats in Quebec. (Score: 1.5/6)

7) The Bloc Quebecois will win at least 3 seats.

The Bloc Quebecois won 10 seats. This was a bit of a shock to the pollsters, as nobody predicted them winning this many. (Score: 2.5/7)

8) The race for Elizabeth May’s seat will be much closer than expected. The Conservatives will come within 1000 votes of knocking May out of her seat.

This prediction was wishful thinking. May won her seat handily, earning 54% of the vote. (Score: 2.5/8)

9) One of the three major party leaders will resign from his position as leader after the results come in. Unlike Jim Prentice, he will hang on as an MP despite resigning as leader.

While Stephen Harper did not announce his resignation during his speech, Conservative Party spokespeople came out and said that Harper would be resigning as leader and hanging on as an MP. Surprisingly, Tom Mulcair did not resign despite a crushing defeat. This may cause some friction within the ranks of the NDP. (Score: 3.5/9)

10) Lying liar Fin Donnelly will not be re-elected in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Apparently lying about filing refugee papers for a dead child is perfectly acceptable in Port Moody-Coquitlam. (Score: 3.5/10)

11) Olivia Chow will lose in Fort York-Spadina. Torontonians are tired of her antics.

Olivia Chow was absolutely crushed by Liberal candidate Adam Vaghan. Chow finished nearly 15,000 votes behind Vaughan. (Score: 4.5/11)

12) The Green Party will not win more than one single seat.

I was right on this one. No Green candidate came close to winning aside from Elizabeth May. (Score: 5.5/12)

13) The NDP will finish third overall, well behind the Conservatives and Liberals, with a poplular vote between 18 and 22%.

The NDP finished with 19.7% of the vote, placing them third overall, well behind the Conservatives and Liberals. (Score: 6.5/13)

14) The Conservatives will win more British Columbia seats than any other party.

The Conservatives only finished with 10 seats in British Columbia, behind both the Liberals and the NDP. (Score: 6.5/14)

15) The Liberals will win more Ontario seats than any other party.

The Liberals absolutely dominated Ontario, winning 80 seats. The Conservatives finished second with 33 seats, mostly in Southern Ontario. (Score: 7.5/15)

16) Despite what the polls say, the Liberals will not win a single seat in Calgary.

The Liberals won 2 seats in Calgary, with Hamas supporter Darshan Kang winning handily in Calgary-Skyview and Kent Hehr barely slipping past Conservative Joan Crockatt in Calgary-Centre. (Score: 7.5/16)

17) The NDP is in for a rude awakening on Vancouver Island. They will not sweep the Island. They’ll lose at least 3 races there.

The NDP did not sweep the Island, but also did not lose any of their 2011 seats. (Score: 8/17)

18) Tom Mulcair will come very close to losing his seat in Montreal.

It wasn’t “very close”, but it was much closer than expected. Mulcair won in Outremont by just 4,376 votes (44%). For contrast, Justin Trudeau won Papineau by 13,050 votes (52%) and Stephen Harper won Calgary-Heritage by 22,151 votes (64%). I’ll give this prediction half a point. (Score: 8.5/18)

19) We will not know if tomorrow’s winner will actually form government. It will be a minority winner.

The Liberals won a majority. I wasn’t alone in being wrong with this prediction. (Score: 8.5/19)

20) The Toronto Blue Jays will win game 3 of the ALCS against the Kansas City Royals.

The Jays won! Unfortunately, game 4 tonight didn’t go nearly as well. (Score: 9.5/20)

As we can see, I’m no Nostradamus. My political predictions were utterly pathetic. I was only correct on 47.5% of these predictions. Maybe I should get into blogging about baseball instead.

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3 thoughts on “Reflecting on Predictions

    • Read your reflection, aside from the joy at the ousting of Harper (I was obviously a fan, but I do agree that he was PM a little too long. Perhaps it’s time for PM term limits? The U.S. system seems to work well in that regard), I agree with most of what you said. My issue with PropRep is that I feel it will further centralize government and make it more about party than representative. I like being able to vote directly for my local rep.

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