The last time I made political predictions (for the 2015 federal election), I was spectacularly wrong. I said the Conservatives would be re-elected. I was wrong. I said the Conservatives would win all three Northern Territories. They didn’t even come close in any of them. I said the NDP would be decimated on the prairies. They actually picked up seats in Saskatchewan. I said the NDP would place third in Quebec. They placed second. I could continue, but I think you likely get the point.
In hopes of redeeming myself, here are 10 predictions for 2017.
1) Jason Kenney will win the leadership of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party on a landslide first ballot, winning close to 80% of votes. At respective special meetings, both the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative Parties will overwhelmingly vote in favor of a merger. Jason Kenney will win the leadership of the newly coined Conservative Party of Alberta in yet another landslide (this one over Brian Jean), partially thanks to support from the entire PC caucus and endorsements from a number of Wildrose MLA’s including Derek Fildebrandt.
2) Maxime Bernier will win the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada on the third ballot. Kevin O’Leary will embarrassingly fizzle out as he’s exposed for his overly liberal beliefs, not even staying in the race long enough to make it to the convention. Bernier’s support will be strongest in Quebec and on the Prairies.
3) Alberta Liberal Leader David Swann will resign from the Legislature once the party’s leadership race is complete. The new leader will go on to lose to the PC candidate in the Calgary – Mountain View byelection. Two NDP MLA’s will also resign, with both seats going to the opposition.
4) Donald Trump will approve Keystone XL, and Justin Trudeau will follow suit. This will lead to a large drop in Trudeau’s support in BC and Quebec whilst he gains some support in Ontario and on the Prairies.
5) Scandal will erupt in the House of Commons as the ethics commissioner releases a scathing report on Justin Trudeau’s cash-for-access events. This leads to another investigation, this one into the Trudeau Foundation, which will carry into 2018.
I’ll look back on this at the end of the year and see which ones I got right (or wrong).